Reds bullpen: what a relief…
Biking for Baseball is making the trek from Pittsburgh to Cincinnati to check out the NL Central leading Reds at Great American Ballpark. We’ll be at the game Wednesday night when Mike Leake goes for the Reds against R.A. Dickey and the Mets.
The Reds are looking to add to their lead in the NL Central while the Mets are trying to get to .500 to stay relevant in the NL East. This will be an interesting match-up with R.A. Dickey trying to neutralize the Reds attack that is without MVP candidate Joey Votto, who recently had a setback in recovering from a knee injury and is expected to return a week later than originally planned.
That is unfortunate for the Reds slightly above average offense. Joey Votto’s hitting prowess has been a key for the offense for his entire career, and know the Reds will have to rely on Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, and Brandon Phillips to anchor the middle of the order. The Reds are really missing Votto’s 17.8% walk rate and his .465 OBP. He gets on base nearly half of the time!
Luckily for the Reds, they just need adequate starting pitching to get a lead to one of the top bullpens in baseball. Johnny Cueto is having a monster year starting for the Reds, but if Bronson Arroyo, Mat Latos, Mike Leake, and Homer Bailey pitch well enough to hand a lead off to the bullpen the Reds will be in good shape.
The bullpen is highlighted by the flamethrower, Aroldis Chapman. The most amazing stat for Chapman is his strikeout rate of 16.74 K/9. That means he strikes out almost 2 batters every inning he pitches. It is incredible to watch him pitch, because he makes major league hitters look embarrassingly foolish trying to swing the bat at his pitches. Opponents are batting just .126 against him, and his 0.68 WHIP means he allows a runner on base almost every 2 innings. Some experts are making a case for Chapman winning the Cy Young. It’s a compelling argument as well; Chapman has exactly as many strikeouts as AL Cy Young favorite Jered Weaver, in 81 fewer innings pitched!
While Chapman anchors the bullpen in the ninth inning, Sean Marshall and Alfredo Simon have the set-up roles locked down. They have high strikeout rates and low ERA and have successfully protected leads all season to hand the ball to Chapman. Overall, the Reds bullpen strikes out 10.19 batters per 9 innings with a 2.66 ERA. According to WAR, they’ve added the 3rd most wins above replacement in the major leagues while throwing considerably less innings than the highest WAR team, the Royals.
The Reds made a deal for former Royals closer Jonathan Broxton at the trade deadline, which didn’t seem to enhance their bullpen. Broxton put up great numbers (saves!) with the Royals, but peripheral statistics such as his WHIP of 1.44 and K/BB of 1.73 seem foreboding of a decrease in production. From watching him with the Royals, walks were his problem, but he would always somehow escape having 2 men on base with no outs. I think Broxton must be a genie or something.
The Reds bullpen is a definite strength of their team. Marshall, Simon, and Chapman have the late innings locked down. As long as the Reds can effectively use Broxton in lower leverage situations, he can provide value to the already valuable bullpen. We’re hoping to see Chapman strike out the side for a save on Wednesday.