Free Agency
The Cardinals and the Rangers have at least one (hopefully 2!) game left in the World Series. I’m a part of the vast majority of baseball fans who cheer for one of the other 28 teams that didn’t make it this far; but while I’m actively watching the games and enthralled by Phonegate, I’m still looking forward to the start of free agency to see how my team can improve going into next season.
MLB Free Agency begins at midnight five days after the end of the World Series. In less than a week, our short attention spans will go from watching historic home runs, intentional walks, questionable stolen base attempts, and Ron Washington going crazy in the dugout to watching for big signings, multi-year contracts, and Type A or B free agents.
In the next week or two, B4B will look at some of the top free agents who will become available. Whose contracts are expiring and are in line for a big payday? Who might make a good fit on your team? First, let’s take a look at some of the starting pitcher depth in this year’s free agent class. Admittedly, it’s not as deep as the potential starting pitcher free agent class for next year*, but there is some talent to be had this year. These names are important because pitching depth is such a valuable commodity. Even the pitchers who aren’t in the upper echelon in this free agent class can add much needed depth to a good rotation. Just ask the Red Sox about pitching depth.
*Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez, and James Shields to name a few.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)
Wilson hasn’t had the best postseason, but that won’t stop him from getting a very large multi-year deal. He’s posted 10.5 WAR over the last two seasons, and because Sabathia may opt to stay in New York, Wilson should get a lot of attention.
Kuroda and Jackson are not on the same level as Wilson and Sabathia, but they should expect their choice of solid contract offers in 2012.
Buehrle has been a reliable strike thrower his whole career. With a good defense behind him, he can work fast and get a lot of hitters out. He and Vazquez aren’t the hottest girls at the bar, but either one can definitely be the cute friend.
Erik Bedard (LHP, 33, FA)
Paul Maholm (LHP, 30, club may decline)
Roy Oswalt (RHP, 34, may decline mutual option)
Bedard, and Oswalt are expensive risks due to their injury histories and high contract demands. They would most likely fit as a good 2-4 starter on a big market club with plenty of resources at their disposal if they aren’t productive.
Pittsburgh seems to be looking for prospects in return for Maholm, be it through a trade or through free agency compensation. He is an intriguing option for a potential contending team. His 3.66 ERA and 3.78 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) were the lowest of his career in 2011. FIP is a fairly accurate predictor of future performance as long as he stays healthy.
Chris Capuano (LHP, 33, FA)
Bruce Chen (LHP, 35, FA)
Bartolo Colon (RHP, 39, FA)
Freddy Garcia (RHP, 36, FA)
Livan Hernandez (RHP, 37, FA)
Kenshin Kawakami (RHP, 37, FA)
Jason Marquis (RHP, 33, FA)
Brad Penny (RHP, 34, FA)
Tim Wakefield (RHP, 45, FA)
Jeff Francis (LHP, 31, FA)
Joel Pineiro (RHP, 33, FA)
Brandon Webb (RHP, 33, FA)
Dontrelle Willis (LHP, 30, FA)
Chien-Ming Wang (RHP, 32, FA)
Doug Davis (LHP, 36, FA)
All of these pitchers have very low risk to any major league club. They are relatively inexpensive, and may potentially outperform their expected contract value. Pineiro, Webb, Willis, Wang, and Davis are all coming off injuries, so if a club feels like one of them is healthy enough to give a small contract, then they could provide some value at the bottom of a rotation. A minor league contract is likely what those 5 players can expect.
Yankees pitchers Colon and Garcia were equal parts surprising, impressive, and inconsistent last season. There is a risk with either of them, but if the price is right they could still provide some value. Capuano is interesting in that his advanced statistics indicate he was a better pitcher than his traditional numbers showed in 2011. His xFIP (adjusted FIP) was almost a full point better than his actual ERA. Pair that with his high strikeout-to-walk ratio, some team may be getting a very good value for Capuano.
There you go. It’s just a quick look at available starting pitchers. We’ll take a look at hitters and relievers in the next few days. Until then, enjoy the last time you get to watch baseball games until spring training.