R.A. Dickey is similar to who?
R.A. Dickey has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. He’s been pretty much lights out all season as a 37 year old knuckleballer. After spending 10 seasons bouncing between AAA and different major league teams as a reliever/swing man, he became an All-Star for the first time this season. Statistically he is having by far his best year, and his stats compare with the best pitchers in baseball. His ERA is 2.72 and his FIP has him behind only Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez from the Nationals. He ranks 3rd in WAR behind only Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez. On average, he is only allowing 1 base-runner to reach base every inning.
This season, Dickey ranks among the best in baseball. Over his career, it’s a different story. Baseball Reference has a great feature that compares a player to other players historically. They are called similarity scores or historical comps. Basically, similarity scores compare the statistics of baseball players with one another to determine how closely related player’s performances are. The formula can be found at Baseball-reference, but here is full explanation for a pitcher. The closer the final score is to 1000, the more similar the statistics are.
Start with a thousand and then subtract the following deductions.
• One point for each difference of 1 win.
• One point for each difference of 2 losses.
• One point for each difference of .002 in winning percentage (max 100 points).
• One point for each difference of .02 in ERA (max 100 points).
• One point for each difference of 10 games pitched.
• One point for each difference of 20 starts.
• One point for each difference of 20 complete games.
• One point for each difference of 50 innings pitched.
• One point for each difference of 50 hits allowed.
• One point for each difference of 30 strikeouts.
• One point for each difference of 10 walks.
• One point for each difference of 5 shutouts.
• One point for each difference of 3 saves.
According to historical comps, Dickey is most similar to Bob Milacki, Pete Redfern, and Whitey Glazner. Milacki’s claim to fame is that he started the most games in 1989 while pitching for the Orioles. Redfern pitched for the Twins in the late 1970’s and early 80’s, and only had 7 errors in his whole 7 year career. Glazner played for the 1923 Philadelphia Phillies with a guy named Cliff Lee.
Dickey’s similarity scores aren’t great, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that he is having a phenomenal year. He’ll definitely get consideration for the Cy Young Award, and it is remarkable that he has changed his career enough to be compared with great players like he is now. Hopefully he can maintain his performance for a few more years, so he can get historical credit he deserves.