Relief Pitchers
There are dozens of relief pitchers set to be free agents this offseason. Relievers are often the most difficult to gauge productivity. Over the last five years only two relievers have averaged more than 2 WAR per season; one of them is the greatest closer of all time (Mariano Rivera), and the other is not-too-shabby himself, Jonathan Papelbon. This means that either relievers are (1)not that valuable or (2)they are very volatile and inconsistent. I would argue in favor of (2) and that a reliever’s performance is very up-and-down due to overuse and poor bullpen management.
Papelbon is by far the best reliever available this offseason. He’s only 31 and is very much in his prime. CBS Sportsline has the Red Sox, Rangers, Phillies, and Blue Jays on the list of teams wanting his services. He is very worthy of a long term deal.
After Papelbon, there are two good closer options with some very solid potential in Ryan Madson and Heath Bell. Madson is the same age as Papelbon and seems to be the next best option in this class, although he seems to be looking for four-years and $44 million*. CBS also thinks the same four teams are targeting Madson and Papelbon. Bell had one of those inconsistent seasons for a relief pitcher this year, but he has been good long enough that he seems likely to rebound. The Padres, Phillies, Dodgers, and Twins may all be interested in him.
*That might be way too much!
The reason the Twins are in need of a closer is because they have declined the option on Joe Nathan. Prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery, Nathan was one of the best closers in baseball. He missed all of the 2010 season, and at age 36, showed signs of aging in 2011. He’s a very big question mark, but he could prove to be a steal for some team.
Two other question marks are Francisco Rodriguez and Jonathan Broxton. K-Rod’s off-field actions and “Me first” attitude may make teams hesitant to sign him, but he’s still effective and was a valuable set-up man after he joined the Brewers. Broxton could be a sleeper who is coming off a poor season and elbow surgery.
The remaining players on this list are very interchangeable and shouldn’t be overvalued as much as some of them will inevitably be. This article does a very good job showing why it just isn’t a good idea to sign relievers to long term deals. It looks at free agent pitchers signed to 3+ year deals, and shows that they are likely to end up performing at the same level that can be expected of a minor league player. Sign at your own risk.
Jeremy Accardo, Luis Ayala, Danys Baez, Miguel Batista, Shawn Camp, Todd Coffey, Francisco Cordero, Juan Cruz, Octavio Dotel, Chad Durbin, Jeff Fulchino, Frank Francisco, Juan Gutierrez, LaTroy Hawkins, Aaron Heilman, Ryota Igarashi, Jason Isringhausen, Brad Lidge, Scott Linebrink, Mike MacDougal, Guillermo Mota, Micah Owings, Tony Pena, Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch, Fernando Rodney, Takashi Saito, Dan Wheeler, Kerry Wood, Jamey Wright, Michael Wuertz, Joel Zumaya, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Gonzalez, John Grabow, Javier Lopez, Trever Miller, Hideki Okajima, Arthur Rhodes, J.C. Romero and George Sherrill.
We’ve looked at free agent starting pitchers, outfielders, infielders, and now relievers. Who do you want your team to sign? Would you rather make a trade to acquire players? Let us know. It should be a fun offseason.